As markets tumble and businesses hesitate on critical investments following Trump's aggressive tariff impositions, the European Union's response can best be characterized as "relentlessly threatening to consider." This approach is neither prudent nor reasoned - it's a dangerous abdication of leadership at a critical moment for the global economy and European sovereignty.
All Talk, No Action: The Timeline of Hesitation
When Trump announced his intention to impose tariffs during his campaign, European officials had time to prepare. When he won the presidency, they had more time. When he took office, the clock was ticking loudly. Yet somehow, when the 25% steel and aluminium tariffs and 20% EU-targeted tariffs on all imports actually landed, Brussels again appeared almost completely off-guard.
Let's examine this pattern of inaction:
- Trump campaigned on aggressive tariffs against the EU - European officials had months to develop contingency plans
- April 13th: First set of steel and aluminum tariffs imposed - EU response? Study the effects
- April 2nd: Trump imposes sweeping 20% tariffs on all EU exports
- April 3rd: Bernd Lange, Chair of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade, announces they're still "studying the effects" of the first tariff wave
Von der Leyen's tough talk about Europe having a "strong plan" and being ready to "strike back if necessary" rings hollow when followed by weeks of analysis paralysis. The Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) - that "trade war bazooka" - remains unfired while European businesses and markets suffer real-time consequences. (Disclaimer: don't get me wrong, i am not for ACI if it is going to tarket US cloud providers or technology companies - imo people who shout for "european alternatives" have absolutelly no idea how much deeply is european business running on US technology which simply has close-to-none european alternative.)
Damaging on Multiple Fronts
This hesitation isn't just economically harmful - it's politically self-defeating on at least three levels:
1. Playing into Trump's Hands
Trump's strategy relies on projecting strength while his opponents appear weak and indecisive. Every day the EU "considers" rather than acts reinforces his narrative to his base that he alone can "stand up for America" while other leaders falter. Our hesitation validates his approach and encourages further aggression. Apart from foreign policy, internally every day Trump spills another lie and is in position to portray himself as a defender of US to MAGA populace is another sad day for democracy and rule of law in the US. Every day the world leaders let him ramble about "liberation day" or "golden age" is the day where they undermine the global economy and world peace.
2. Empowering European Populism
Right-wing populist movements across Europe thrive on portraying EU institutions as ineffective bureaucracies, unable to protect European interests in a dangerous world. By demonstrating precisely this behavior during a crisis, Brussels hands these movements a powerful recruiting tool. Voters increasingly question: if the EU can't protect our economic interests, what is it good for?
3. Failing Our Democratic Allies in the US
Many in American civil society, business, and even government oppose Trump's trade war. By not responding decisively, we abandon these allies and make their position harder to maintain. A proportional, swift EU response would strengthen those arguing for international cooperation within American political discourse.
Markets Hate Uncertainty
Meanwhile, global markets tumble not just because of the tariffs themselves, but because of the uncertainty created by the EU's unclear response. Business leaders are left wondering:
- Will there be EU countermeasures?
- Which sectors might be targeted?
- When might action occur?
- How severe will any response be?
As I noted in my previous article, these questions have real implications for technology investments. Should European startups build their next platform on AWS? Should they commit to long-term cloud contracts? Should they diversify away from US providers entirely? The EU's ambiguity makes these decisions nearly impossible to navigate confidently.
"Reason and Temperateness" or Paralysis?
EU officials frame their slow response as demonstrating "reason and temperateness" in contrast to Trump's impulsivity. This is a dangerous misreading of both history and current politics. When facing deliberate economic aggression, a measured but swift response demonstrates far more reasoned thinking than endless deliberation.
The irony is that the EU already has the tools it needs. The Anti-Coercion Instrument was specifically designed for this scenario. The appropriate targets have been identified. The legal frameworks exist. What's missing is not capability but political will.
What Must Change
The EU must immediately:
- Set a deadline for its response - not open-ended "consideration"
- Communicate clearly about the scope and timeline of potential countermeasures
- Take proportional action before additional tariff waves hit
- Present a united front rather than allowing member states to send mixed messages
- Frame the response in terms of defending the rules-based international order - not just European economic interests
The current approach of "relentlessly threatening to consider" must end. European businesses deserve clarity. Global markets need stability. And our international partners require confidence that Europe remains committed to defending a fair trading system.
As someone deeply invested in Europe's technology sector, I worry that our leaders have forgotten a basic truth: in global politics and economics, respect is earned through action, not deliberation. It's time for Europe to match its words with deeds - before our inaction becomes our defining characteristic in this new era of economic confrontation.
What do you think? Is the EU's cautious approach prudent or self-defeating? Let me know in the comments.
